The Cost of Owning a Home (Last 20 Years)

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Notes from the report: Prices and mortgage payments are based on the median existing single-family home price, averaged from quarterly data to obtain annual prices. Mortgage payments are calculated using the interest-rate average for that year and assume a 20% downpayment and fixed 30-year term. Rent is the median gross monthly rent from the 2010 American Community Survey, indexed using the CPI for rent of primary residence. Income is median household income.
Sources from the report: JCHS tabulations of National Association of Realtors®, Composite Affordability Index (NSA) and Existing Single-Family Home Sales via Moody’s Analytics; Freddie Mac, Primary Mortgage Market Survey; US Census Bureau, American Community Survey; Moody’s Analytics, median household income estimates.

Home Prices: It’s About Supply & Demand

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  The real estate market continues to heat up as we head into the summer. Will this increase in demand equate to an increase in home prices? That depends. Remember, the price of any item is determined by the supply of and demand for that item at any point in time. Let’s look at the facts as reported by the National Association of Realtors (NAR) in this month’s Existing Home Sales Report:

• Demand has strengthened, showing a 10% increase over the same month last year.
• The supply of homes for sale is down 20.6% from the same time last year.

Because supply is down and demand is up, many believe prices should begin to increase as we finish out 2012 and head into 2013. In some markets, this analysis is correct. However, there are certain states that still need to clear through a backlog of foreclosed properties which were delayed by the court procedures in those states. The National Mortgage Settlement gave the banks a clear path for releasing these distressed properties. Therefore, in several states, there will be a new supply of discounted inventory coming to market over the next six months. Whether that increase in supply will be fully offset by the increase in demand is still unknown. If not, home prices in those markets will still be under downward pressure.

Sales Are Up. Prices Still Have a Way To Go.

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We believe the housing market is recovering. We believe that sales will be robust through the rest of the year. However, we also believe that the increase in demand will not impact prices in a big way as we think there will also be an increase in the supply of homes coming to the market. This increase in supply will offset the increase in demand. The increase in supply will be fueled by two categories of inventory:

1. Foreclosures entering the market as a result of the National Mortgage Settlement
2. Pent up supply of homeowners who have been unable to sell their homes over the last several years

There have been several recent headlines making strong statements about home values in the country. We must be sure to read the ENTIRE report – not just the headlines. Here are four headlines and the portion of the report that reflects the caution in their ‘cautious optimism’.

HEADLINE:

LPS Home Price Index Shows U.S. Home Price Increase of 0.2 Percent in February; Early Data Suggests Further Increase of 0.3 Percent is Likely During March

CAUTION:

“Reasons for caution are clear, as we’ve been here before. Non-seasonally adjusted prices increased for a few months in early 2009, 2010 and 2011 – trends that all ended by summer, after which all the gains – and then some – were lost. As is true this month, those temporary increases were on low sales volumes – about 30 percent lower than at any point since 1998. Furthermore, the inventory of distressed homes remains high, which will continue to put a drag on prices.”

HEADLINE:

Foreclosure hotspots show signs of housing turnaround

CAUTION:

“However, much will depend on the continued health of our economy, specifically job rates, and how lenders will release their foreclosure inventories now that the 49 state AG Agreement has been signed.”
HEADLINE:
Fiserv Expects Home Prices to Stabilize

CAUTION:

“On the other hand, nearly one-half of the metro areas, or 191, saw prices decrease by more than 2 percent, including double-digit losses in Atlanta (-12.8 percent), Reno, Nevada (-10.8 percent), and Tucson, Arizona (-10 percent).
In the fourth quarter of 2011, the average price of a U.S. single-family home fell four percent from the year-ago period, and Fiserv Case-Shiller projects a further decline of 0.8 percent by the end of 2012.”

HEADLINE:

Home Prices in March Show Monthly Gain: CoreLogic

CAUTION:

“Even with price gains above 5 percent for leading states and CBSAs, Capital Economics said in response to the CoreLogic report that over the year, prices are more likely to stabilize rather than make a dramatic climb.
“There are fears in some quarters, triggered by recent disappointing GDP and payrolls data, of a sharp slowdown in economic growth which could derail the fledgling improvement in the housing market,” said Paul Diggle, property economist for Capital Economics.”

Are You a Buyer Looking to Purchase a Short Sale?

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  It seems that there is a significant amount of confusion when it comes to purchasing a short sale. There are many misconceptions when it comes to this type of transaction, so below I have provided some information to potential buyers of short sales. If you are looking to purchase a short sale, understand that it is not the same as a normal sale and the approach is very different.  There could be several parties involved and issues that are unknown to the buyer and buyer’s agent that can affect the transaction. If you are looking to purchase a short sale here is some helpful information.
1. On average, to get a short sale approval, it can take 60-90 days.
There could be mortgage insurance and an end investor on the loan as well as the servicer, which means it has to go through three different processes. Bank of America could be the servicer on the loan but they do not actually own the loan, so, the short sale has to pass their guidelines, then go to the mortgage insurer if there is one, then to the end investor like Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. If you are a buyer and can’t wait at least 60-90 days for an approval and then another 30 days to go to closing, then you need to look at other houses. The worst thing you can do is tie up a house that is in a short sale with no intention of being patient while waiting for a short sale approval. Approvals can come sooner than 60 days, but industry standard is at least 60 days to get an approval or denial.
2. There is a general assumption that you can purchase a short sale for 40-50% under its listed price.  In a short sale the bank comes out and does a valuation of the property and will expect a slight discount, but will not accept a huge amount under the market value.
Hopefully, if the agent who is handling the sale is experienced, they will have already gotten an approved list price from the bank by the time you are interested in making an offer. The bank will usually be willing to negotiate on that price, but will not, in almost every case, take 40-50% off of that price. To that point, you may be able to get a reasonable deal on a short sale, though it will not be, in most cases, as much of a deal as you may be able to get on an REO (foreclosed property). Also to that point, most short sales will be in better condition than an REO. When you look at the potential repairs a comparable REO needs and the time and expense it can take to do those improvements vs. a short sale being sold at a slight market discount with improvements already made, the investment could even out. There are REO properties that can be picked up for a huge discount, but require massive repairs that a comparable short sale may not require.
3. Short sales are a very difficult process and it takes a qualified person to handle this type of transaction.
With this type of transaction it takes a very experienced agent on the listing side as well as the buying side. Make sure before you move forward on the transaction that the listing agent has ample experience dealing with these types of transactions, or you could be tied up in a contract for months that never goes to settlement. There are several different types of short sale processes and each bank’s process is somewhat different; it takes a professional who has had experience with all of these different types of short sales to help facilitate a successful transaction.
4. In most short sale transactions the properties are sold “as-is” and no repairs will be made.
Although there are some exceptions to this rule, speaking in general, short sales are sold “as-is” and no repairs will be made even if they are found during a home inspection. In most short sale transactions the bank will require both the buyer and the seller to sign an addendum that states the property is being sold “As-is” and no repairs will be made.
These are just a few short pointers for buyers who are looking to purchase a short sale as they are a reality in every market, and if you have the patience you may be able to get the home you are looking for at a discount!

Yet Another Housing Bear Turns Bull

Every day there seems to be more positive news about the real estate recovery. We attempt to give you two things in this blog: 1.    The actual data that indicates where the housing market is headed 2.    Quotes from analysts who have scrutinized this data Today, we want to give you a quote by Ivy Zelman which appeared last week in a Wall Street Journal article Stunned Home Buyers Find the Bidding Wars Are Back. “We very much believe we’ve hit bottom.” Why is the quote from Zelman important? She is an industry expert consistently recognized by Institutional Investor, Greenwich Associates, StarMine and The Wall Street Journal as an industry-leading analyst. She has been nicknamed ‘Poison Ivy’ for her harsh positions on housing over the last several years. Now, Zelman is calling a bottom and projecting prices to moderately increase in the next twelve months. Again, another expert on housing is calling a bottom; another bear turns bull.

Listen to Your Elders

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I just came across a wonderful story...

“My wife and I bought our home in 1967. We raised a family and paid off our mortgage. It’s going to be the only real asset we will pass on to our kids. But really, that house IS our family- all the memories. Buying a house is the best thing a family can do.”
“We paid $29,000 for our home in 1969. It’s worth about $500,000 now. We should have sold it for $600,000 a few years back, but still, it was a great investment.”
“We refinanced our home twice- once for improvements and once to pay for our kids’ college education. It was the only way we could have afforded college in 1985. I can’t imagine how people pay for it today.”
“When my husband passed here years ago, I took out a reverse mortgage to help make ends meet. I was also able to give some money to my granddaughter to use for a down payment on a new home for her family. I like seeing the results of my giving, while I am here to enjoy it.”

It was great to hear those who have done it are glad they did. If you are still debating a purchase (with these great prices and low rates), maybe you need to sit and chat with some seniors- people whose experience you can learn from.

What Is ‘QM’ and Why Does It Matter?

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   We often discuss the difference between the PRICE and the COST of a home. We want buyers to realize, in many ways, the cost of a home is more important to them than the actual price. Obviously, price is part of the cost equation. The other piece, available financing, is also crucial. Soon, there will be major decisions finalized by the government regarding house financing moving forward. These decisions could negatively impact many buyers.
“QM” is a new term which stands for qualified mortgage. The new Bureau of Consumer Financial Protection (CFPB) will be responsible for defining QM thereby setting the consumer guidelines banks and lending institutions must follow before issuing a mortgage.
Richard Cordray, the Director of CFPB, plans to finalize the definition this summer. The Center for Responsible Lending quotes American Banker on this timeline:

“The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau will issue a final rule by the end of June defining what constitutes a ‘qualified mortgage’ that will be exempt from new rules compelling lenders to verify borrowers’ repayment ability.”

The fear of many is that the definition will be too ‘narrow’ resulting in many purchasers not being able to qualify for a mortgage under the QM definition. In a letter to Director Cordray, several industry organizations talk to this issue:

“Most economists and housing market analysts in government and in the private sector agree that today’s underwriting standards are tight and are contributing to a slow housing recovery. Our organizations believe that an unnecessarily narrow definition of QM that covers only a modest proportion of loan products and underwriting standards and serves only a small proportion of borrowers would undermine prospects for a housing recovery and threaten the redevelopment of a sound mortgage market…
We are convinced that the choices around this important rule, including in large measure the breadth of the QM standard, will affect sustainable homeownership for generations to come.” 

What Could This Mean To a Home Buyer?

If a buyer does not qualify under the new ‘QM’ rules, the cost of financing a home will increase. As the letter mentioned above states: 

“A narrowly defined QM would put many of today’s loans and borrowers into the non-QM market, which means that lenders and investors will face a high risk of an ability to pay violation and even a steering violation. As a result of these increased risks, these loans are unlikely to be made. In the unlikely event they are made, they will be far costlier, burdening families least able to bear the expense.”

Securing a mortgage before these new guidelines take effect may make sense to many buyers.