Home Prices: It’s About Supply & Demand
- Demand has strengthened, showing a 10% increase over the same month last year.
- The supply of homes for sale is down 20.6% from the same time last year.
1.
The actual data that indicates where the housing market is
headed
2.
Quotes from analysts who have scrutinized this data
Today, we want to give you a
quote by Ivy Zelman which appeared last week in a Wall Street Journal article Stunned Home Buyers Find the Bidding Wars Are Back.
“We very much believe
we’ve hit bottom.”
Why is the quote from Zelman
important? She is an industry expert consistently recognized by Institutional Investor, Greenwich Associates, StarMine
and The Wall Street
Journal as an industry-leading analyst. She has been nicknamed
‘Poison Ivy’ for her harsh positions on housing over the last several years.
Now, Zelman is calling a bottom and projecting prices to moderately
increase in the next twelve months.
Again, another expert on
housing is calling a bottom; another bear turns bull.
|
“My wife and I bought our home in 1967. We raised a family and paid off our mortgage. It’s going to be the only real asset we will pass on to our kids. But really, that house IS our family- all the memories. Buying a house is the best thing a family can do.”It was great to hear those who have done it are glad they did. If you are still debating a purchase (with these great prices and low rates), maybe you need to sit and chat with some seniors- people whose experience you can learn from.
“We paid $29,000 for our home in 1969. It’s worth about $500,000 now. We should have sold it for $600,000 a few years back, but still, it was a great investment.”
“We refinanced our home twice- once for improvements and once to pay for our kids’ college education. It was the only way we could have afforded college in 1985. I can’t imagine how people pay for it today.”
“When my husband passed here years ago, I took out a reverse mortgage to help make ends meet. I was also able to give some money to my granddaughter to use for a down payment on a new home for her family. I like seeing the results of my giving, while I am here to enjoy it.”
“The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau will issue a final rule by the end of June defining what constitutes a ‘qualified mortgage’ that will be exempt from new rules compelling lenders to verify borrowers’ repayment ability.”The fear of many is that the definition will be too ‘narrow’ resulting in many purchasers not being able to qualify for a mortgage under the QM definition. In a letter to Director Cordray, several industry organizations talk to this issue:
“Most economists and housing market analysts in government and in the private sector agree that today’s underwriting standards are tight and are contributing to a slow housing recovery. Our organizations believe that an unnecessarily narrow definition of QM that covers only a modest proportion of loan products and underwriting standards and serves only a small proportion of borrowers would undermine prospects for a housing recovery and threaten the redevelopment of a sound mortgage market…
We are convinced that the choices around this important rule, including in large measure the breadth of the QM standard, will affect sustainable homeownership for generations to come.”
“A narrowly defined QM would put many of today’s loans and borrowers into the non-QM market, which means that lenders and investors will face a high risk of an ability to pay violation and even a steering violation. As a result of these increased risks, these loans are unlikely to be made. In the unlikely event they are made, they will be far costlier, burdening families least able to bear the expense.”Securing a mortgage before these new guidelines take effect may make sense to many buyers.