Selling? Waiting Until the Spring Makes No Sense

Late last year, banks were warned that they needed to guarantee that the paperwork necessary to start a foreclosure process on a family was both accurate and complete. Since then, the banks have slowed down the foreclosure process while they re-examined their procedures. They are now confident that all the required documentation is in order. We are currently waiting on a settlement between the banks and the state attorneys general which will establish what penalties will be assessed. Once this settlement is reached, the banks will again move forward on many homes which are currently stalled at some stage in the foreclosure process. How many homes are we talking about? There are millions of homes in this category. Calculated Risk quantified the situation: “There are a large number of seriously delinquent mortgage loans in limbo waiting for this settlement. According to LPS, at the end of August there were about 1.87 million loans seriously delinquent and another 2.15 million loans in the foreclosure process. This is only down slightly from a year ago when 4.4 million loans were seriously delinquent or in-foreclosure. Once the settlement is reached, the pace of foreclosures will pick up sharply. The pace will “pick up sharply”. Bottom Line As more foreclosures come to the market at discounted prices, there will be greater downward pressure on all housing values. Waiting for the spring selling season to put your house on the market may not make sense this year. The increase in demand may be overshadowed by an increased supply of distressed properties.

13,780 Homes Sold Yesterday

To all those who have declared the real estate market dead, we want you to know that over 13,780 houses sold yesterday, 13,780 will sell today and 13,780 will sell tomorrow. That is the average number of homes that sell each and every day in this country according to the National Association of Realtors’ (NAR) latest Existing Home Sales Report. NAR reported that sales had increased 7.7% over the month before and 18.6% over the year before. According to the report, annualized sales now stand at 5.03 million. Divide that number by 365 (days in a year) and we can see that, on average, well over 13,000 homes sell every day. We realize that these numbers are below the record for homes sold in 2006. We also know that we may never see those numbers again (and that is probably a good thing). But to say that the current real estate market is dead or that houses are not selling is totally inaccurate. We have over 13,000 pieces of evidence to prove that.

Home Sales: Investors Are About to Return

Sales in the housing industry have remained stagnant over the last several months. Though certain categories of purchasers have remained stable and even increased, the number of cash buyers and investors has dramatically decreased. Researchers from Capital Economics recently reported: “The firm has found that since January, the number of homes purchased by cash buyers and investors has fallen by 26 percent.” However, we believe these purchasers have not left the market entirely but instead have been waiting on the sidelines. Both cash buyers and investors are normally looking for a deal/steal on the real estate they purchase. It is our opinion they are waiting for the release of the glut of distressed properties which has been kept off the market while paperwork issues were being cleared. Proof of this can be seen in the decreasing percentage of overall sales the distressed market has represented over the last six months (40% to 29%). As we posted yesterday, this distressed inventory is about to come to market. These foreclosures will have very enticing prices on them. We believe sales will jump. Bottom Line The supply of houses will increase; so will demand for this inventory. The impact on prices will be determined by which increases more. Our bet is that supply will still be greater than demand causing further downward pressure on overall prices.

Buy Sooner Rather Than Later!

We are enjoying extremely low interest rates, for sure. With the global economy, the national economy and unemployment where they are, no one is predicting a dramatic change in rates any time soon. BUT, on Monday, the Obama Administration floated out some interesting proposals they are considering through the Acting Director of the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA), Edward DeMarco. It appears that two significant changes in housing financing are on the table.

You should know that FHFA is the new regulator that is overseeing the restoration of viability of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. They are charged with reducing the risk on loans delivered to the GSEs in order to protect the U.S. taxpayer.

In a speech this past Monday, Mr. DeMarco mentioned two potential changes:

Increasing the role of the private sector to lessen the risk held by the public sector.

The method mentioned was increasing the insurance coverages assumed by the PMI (Private Mortgage Insurance) companies. One result could be higher insurance rates for loans where customers put less than 20% down. The second wrinkle is potentially more damaging…the idea that PMI coverage may be required on loans with 21%-25% (maybe even 30%) down! Clearly, this is an attempt to get more fee income to the MI companies to entice them to remain viable and continue to serve those with less than 20% down. Regardless, the net result is that more people will have to pay more money for private mortgage insurance. “How much?” and “To what extent?” is yet to be defined; however, more costs to more people is bad.

Adjusting fees.

Recognize that the GSEs charge fees. Explaining what they are and why they exist is a topic for a different day. Suffice to say, today, fees are fairly standard geographically speaking. Mr. DeMarco is talking about adjusting the fees (i.e., increasing them) for areas that have proven more risky. This proposal means the hardest hit areas will have the most difficult time recovering because the increased fees always get passed on to the consumer. Rather than “spread the risk”, FHFA is talking about punishing the defenseless.

The predictable outcome of these “strategies” is higher costs to the consumer which makes buying a home more expensive. As costs go up, desire to buy goes down (as does the borrower’s ability to be approved for a mortgage). 

Message: Buy sooner rather than later!

Windows of Opportunity Beginning to Close for Sellers!

We have suggested that sellers who need to sell within the next 18 months had a ‘window of opportunity’ to sell at higher prices. They needed to put their houses up for sale immediately before a flood of distressed properties were introduced to the market. This window is beginning to close. The paperwork challenges faced by banks that caused a delay in the foreclosure process over the last ten months are starting to clear. It seems that these houses are now coming to the market. RealtyTrac reported in their September Foreclosure Report: “Default notices were filed for the first time on a  total of 78,880 U.S. properties in August, a nine-month high and a 33 percent  increase from July — the biggest month-over-month increase since August 2007.” James Saccacio, chief executive officer of RealtyTrac explained: “The big increase in new foreclosure actions may be a signal that lenders are starting to push through some of the foreclosures delayed by robo-signing and other documentation problems. It also foreshadows more bank repossessions in the coming months as these new foreclosures make their way through the process.” Diana Olick, of CNBC’s Realty Check quoted a spokesperson for Bank of America: “ Strong gains like that from July to August demonstrate our progress – primarily in judicial states — clearing more volume to advance to foreclosure once we pass the numerous quality controls we have in place and exhaust all options with homeowners.” The impact will be felt from coast to coast. New Jersey Superior Court Judge Mary Jacobson recently cleared the way for the top banks to resume foreclosures in the state. The impact this will have on the number of distressed properties can be clearly seen in these statistics reported by Housing Wire: “In October, New Jersey had the 24th highest foreclosure rate in the country, with servicers filing roughly 5,200 foreclosures that month, according to RealtyTrac. By July, the Garden State’s foreclosure rate dropped to 42nd with just 1,112 filings last month.” ForeclosureRadar, which handles research in California, Oregon, Washington, Arizona and Nevada, last week reported: “Foreclosure starts rose in every state.” Bottom Line If you currently are selling your home, price it to compel a buyer to purchase it now. Waiting will cause you to compete with an increased number of distressed properties which sell at dramatically discounted prices.

Houses Underwater: The Tide Is About to Rise

Two separate housing reports came out in the last week which discussed different challenges facing the current real estate market. The first was CoreLogic’s Negative Equity Report and the second was JP Morgan Chase’s Home Price Monitor. Each report delivered some difficult news. However, if you piece both reports together, we can see future challenges are in store for home values. Negative Equity When a home’s current value is less than the existing mortgage on that home, the house is said to be in a ‘negative equity’ situation (other terms used to describe this situation are ‘underwater’ and ‘upside down’).  The CoreLogic report stated: “…that 10.9 million, or 22.5 percent, of all residential properties with a mortgage were in negative equity at the end of the second quarter of 2011… An additional 2.4 million borrowers had less than five percent equity, referred to as near-negative equity, in the second quarter. Together, negative equity and near-negative equity mortgages accounted for 27.5 percent of all residential properties with a mortgage nationwide.” This is important because studies show that people in a negative equity situation are more likely to default on their mortgage payments than people who have equity in their homes. Home Prices Many experts believe that housing prices will soften through this winter. According to an article in HousingWire, analysts from JP Morgan Chase announced in their recent Home Price Monitor: “Home prices could dip another 6% to 7%, before hitting rock bottom in early 2012.” Let’s Combine the Information The CoreLogic report said there are an additional 2.4 million households with less than 5% equity. The JP Morgan Chase report said that prices will drop another 6 to 7% in the next six months. That leaves an additional 2 million+ homes in the near future that will be faced with the decision to pay (or not pay) the mortgage payment on a house no longer worth the amount of that mortgage. Bottom Line History has shown that a percentage of those 2 million+ homes will enter the distressed property category as some families decide it no longer makes sense to pay their mortgage. Any increase in short sales or foreclosures will impact prices in an area.